Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Minnesota Twins 6-4 on June 30, 2026, at Daikin Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 56 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Houston erupted for six runs to erase a 3-0 Minnesota deficit built in the first. The defining moment of that rally was a Yordan Alvarez home run off Twins starter Joe Ryan that swung win probability by 36.0 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. A Jose Altuve walk later in the same inning added another 11.1 percentage points, underscoring how completely Houston seized control once the fourth got underway.

Minnesota's best attempt at a response came in the top of the fifth, when Josh Bell doubled off Mike Burrows for a 9.6 percentage point swing, though the Twins were ultimately unable to close the gap. Ryan had struggled to escape damage earlier as well, with Nick Allen's strikeout in the second and Cam Smith's groundout in the first each representing negative swings of 9.3 and 9.2 percentage points respectively for the Twins, reflecting the squandered leverage Houston navigated through. Alvarez finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-32.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.4, while Raynel Delgado and Yainer Diaz contributed plus-11.8 and plus-8.4 percentage points respectively.

On the mound, Houston's relief corps locked down the final frames with quiet efficiency. Bryan King led all pitchers at plus-8.1 percent WPA, followed by Steven Okert at plus-7.2 and Eric Orze at plus-6.8, a trio that collectively ensured Minnesota's 4-run total never threatened the outcome after the fourth inning reshuffled the game entirely.