San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Diego Padres 9-7 at Wrigley Field on June 30, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win moving from 59% before the game to 100% at its conclusion. Chicago built its lead through a series of home runs in the early and middle innings, with the decisive damage coming in the second and fifth frames. The Padres mounted a late push, scoring four runs in the top of the eighth to trim the deficit, but the Cubs had already built too substantial a cushion to be seriously threatened.

The second inning was the game's single most consequential stretch. Dansby Swanson connected off JP Sears for a home run that shifted win probability 7.6 percentage points in Chicago's favor, and Alex Bregman followed with his own shot off Sears that added another 13.9 points, the largest single-play swing of the game. San Diego answered in the third when Manny Machado took Matthew Boyd deep for a 12.4-point swing back toward the Padres, briefly tightening the contest. Chicago reasserted control in the fifth, when Swanson homered again off Ron Marinaccio for a 9.7-point shift, and Michael Busch added a home run off Sears worth 8.7 points, effectively putting the game out of reach.

Swanson finished as the game's top performer by win probability added at plus-15.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.8, his two home runs proving central to the Cubs' margin. Busch contributed plus-13.8 percent WPA, and Bregman added plus-13.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4. On the pitching side, Tyler Ferguson led Chicago's staff with plus-9.4 percent WPA, while Wandy Peralta was the only Cubs reliever to finish in negative territory at minus-1.3 percent. The Cubs finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while San Diego also collected 13 hits but was undone by an error and a pitching staff that surrendered five home runs on the night.