San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs walked off with a 3-2 victory over the San Diego Padres on June 29, 2026, at Wrigley Field, completing a late comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 57 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. San Diego had carried a 2-1 advantage through eight innings on the strength of a hit-rich offensive effort — the Padres finished with 11 hits — but Chicago's pitching staff held firm through the middle frames to keep the Cubs within striking distance heading into the ninth.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth against Mason Miller. Alex Bregman opened the inning with a single that added 12.0 percent to Chicago's win probability, putting the tying run on base. The Cubs then absorbed a significant setback when Michael Busch grounded into a double play, a swing of minus-29.5 percent that pushed San Diego back to the brink of closing out the game. But Seiya Suzuki answered immediately with a single that produced the game's single largest win-probability shift at plus-35.9 percent, driving in the winning run and sealing the walk-off. Suzuki finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-34.1 percent to go along with a plus-0.4 RE24, while Xander Bogaerts contributed meaningfully throughout at plus-20.2 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Adrian Morejon led Chicago's relievers with plus-14.6 percent WPA, followed closely by Trent Thornton at plus-13.5 percent, whose strikeout of Gavin Sheets in the top of the ninth prevented further damage and set the stage for the walk-off.