New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at Rogers Centre on June 29, 2026, holding on through a tense late-game push to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Toronto with a 60 percent home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent. The Blue Jays scored the game's first run in the opening inning and added an insurance run in the fifth, establishing a two-run cushion that would ultimately prove to be exactly enough against a Mets offense that finished with five hits and committed two errors.
The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the final two innings, where Toronto's bullpen combination of Tyler Rogers, Trey Yesavage, and Louis Varland shut down New York's comeback attempts. Francisco Lindor provided the Mets' lone bright moment in the seventh inning, launching a home run off Yesavage that registered a win-probability swing of plus-13.2 percent and pulled New York within one. That was as close as the Mets would get. Rogers neutralized a potential rally in the eighth when he induced a groundout from Bo Bichette — actually working against the Mets — and Varland closed the door in the ninth, striking out Ronny Mauricio on a play that shifted win probability by minus-13.5 percent and then fanning Mark Vientos for a minus-12.8 percent swing. A.J. Ewing drew a walk off Varland worth plus-10.6 percent, briefly keeping the ninth alive, but it was not enough.
Among Toronto's top contributors by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability metrics, Trey Yesavage led all pitchers at plus-17.8 percent despite surrendering the Lindor home run, while Varland added plus-15.2 percent with his shutdown ninth and Rogers contributed plus-10.8 percent. On the offensive side, A.J. Ewing paced all batters with a plus-12.0 percent WPA showing, and Jared Young posted the game's highest RE24 among position players at plus-0.5. The Mets fell to defeat despite generating late-game drama, with their errors and strikeouts in critical moments ultimately allowing Toronto to protect a slim margin throughout the night.