Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 10-7 at Coors Field on June 29, 2026, handing Colorado a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 40 percent pre-game home win probability all the way down to zero. Miami scored in bursts, with the decisive damage coming in the fifth and seventh innings, when the Marlins put up four runs each time to pull away from a Rockies team that had briefly shown life through the middle frames.

The two biggest swings in win probability both belonged to Miami. Griffin Conine's fifth-inning home run off Victor Vodnik shifted win probability by plus-31.4 percent in the Marlins' favor, effectively turning a competitive game into one Miami controlled. Two innings later, Javier Sanoja followed with a triple off Antonio Senzatela that added another plus-26.2 percent, a sequence that removed any remaining doubt about the outcome. Kyle Stowers contributed a double in that same seventh-inning rally, tacking on plus-9.7 percent. Colorado's best moment came in the third inning, when Kyle Karros doubled off Sandy Alcantara for a plus-15.7 percent swing, and Jake McCarthy's second-inning double off Alcantara added plus-12.3 percent, keeping the Rockies within range early before Miami's offense took over.

By game's end, Sanoja led all players with a plus-35.0 percent WPA and a plus-3.1 RE24, while Conine finished at plus-32.1 percent WPA and plus-2.6 RE24. Karros was Colorado's lone standout, finishing at plus-15.3 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Michael Petersen led Miami's relievers with a plus-6.9 percent WPA contribution, and the Marlins' staff held Colorado scoreless across five of nine innings to preserve a final margin of three.