Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | 9 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates pulled away from the Cincinnati Reds on June 28, 2026, at PNC Park, winning 9-4 in a game that featured two decisive scoring bursts and a standout offensive performance from Ryan O'Hearn. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 56% pre-game home win probability for Pittsburgh, and that figure climbed steadily to 100% by the final out as the Pirates controlled the contest in two separate stretches, scoring four runs in the second inning and four more in the eighth.
Cincinnati briefly showed signs of life in the fifth inning, which proved to be the most pivotal frame of the game for both clubs. A Tyler Stephenson double off Mitch Keller shifted win probability 14.0 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor, and an Edwin Arroyo single added another 10.5 points as the Reds plated two runs to cut into the deficit. Pittsburgh answered in the bottom half, however, when O'Hearn launched a home run off Brady Singer that swung win probability 13.0 points back toward the Pirates. Any lingering Reds momentum was extinguished in the seventh when Konnor Griffin grounded into a double play off Brock Burke, a sequence that carried a 13.8-point negative win-probability swing for Cincinnati. O'Hearn then added a punctuation-mark home run in the eighth off Pierce Johnson, the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-17.3 points.
O'Hearn finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a combined WPA of plus-26.1 and an RE24 of plus-2.8 across his two home runs. Stephenson contributed a WPA of plus-18.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.7 for Cincinnati despite the loss, while JJ Bleday added plus-15.8 WPA for Pittsburgh. On the mound, Brock Burke was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a plus-20.0 WPA, followed closely by Carmen Mlodzinski at plus-19.3. Pittsburgh finished with 11 hits against Cincinnati's 8, and each team committed one error in a final line that told the story of a Pirates club that dominated in the moments that mattered most.