Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 5-4 at Citi Field on June 28, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered giving the home side only a 40 percent chance of winning, a figure that fell to zero by the final out. Philadelphia built a three-run advantage in the third inning, saw New York claw back with a run in the fifth and three more in the sixth — including A.J. Ewing's home run off Chase Shugart that swung win probability 22.9 points in the Mets' favor — before Kyle Schwarber reclaimed control with a two-run home run off Kodai Senga in the seventh, a swing worth 27.6 percentage points to the Phillies' chances and the single most impactful offensive play of the night.

The Mets had two chances to answer in the late innings but could not convert. Francisco Alvarez struck out against Orion Kerkering in the eighth in what proved to be the most consequential play of the game, a 29.8-point collapse in New York's win probability, followed by Ronny Mauricio's pop out that cost the Mets another 13.9 points. In the ninth, Luis Torrens lined out against Jhoan Duran to close the door, a play worth 27.0 points in Philadelphia's favor as the Phillies preserved the one-run lead.

Among individual performers, Torrens finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-37.1 percent despite his lineup out sealing the Mets' fate, while Schwarber posted a plus-27.3 percent WPA alongside a 1.5 RE24, reflecting the direct run-environment value of his go-ahead homer. Juan Soto also contributed meaningfully at plus-19.3 percent WPA and 1.1 RE24. On the mound, Kerkering was the decisive arm for Philadelphia, generating plus-23.3 percent WPA out of the bullpen, with José Alvarado and Jesús Luzardo adding plus-9.7 and plus-5.7 percent respectively as the Phillies closed out a hard-fought road win.