Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off a late Seattle rally to claim a 4-3 victory at Progressive Field on June 27, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 56 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland built its cushion methodically, doing the bulk of its damage in the fourth inning, where Kahlil Watson's double off Logan Gilbert added 13.6 percentage points of win probability and Cooper Ingle followed with a single worth another 10.2 points, keying a three-run frame that gave the Guardians the lead they would largely protect through seven innings. A solo run in the fifth extended the Cleveland advantage to four, and their pitching staff held Seattle scoreless through the first seven frames.

The Mariners mounted their only serious threat in the eighth, when Randy Arozarena connected on a home run off Shawn Armstrong that swung win probability by 24.9 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Julio Rodriguez also contributed meaningfully for Seattle, finishing as the club's second-highest WPA contributor at plus 12.9 percent. But the rally stalled there, and when Cade Smith worked the ninth, consecutive outs by Josh Naylor and Dominic Canzone, costing Seattle 13.5 and 8.9 percentage points of win probability respectively, effectively closed the door. On the Cleveland side, Hunter Gaddis led all pitchers with plus 18.6 percent WPA, Slade Cecconi added 17.9 percent, and Smith rounded out the bullpen effort at plus 15.2 percent, with the Guardians finishing with a 4-7-1 line against Seattle's 3-8-0.