Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 8-6 at Comerica Park on June 27, 2026, completing the comeback on the road behind a decisive eighth-inning surge. Houston finished with 16 hits against Detroit's 11, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win, which opened at 48% before first pitch, fell to 0% by the final out.
The game's single most consequential moment came in the top of the eighth inning, when Isaac Paredes drove a double off Will Vest that swung win probability by plus-39.3 percentage points in Houston's favor. That hit was the backbone of a three-run frame that broke open what had been a competitive contest. Jeremy Peña followed with a single off Vest in the same inning, adding another plus-14.4 percentage points to the Astros' advantage. Detroit's most impactful offensive moment had come earlier, in the bottom of the third, when Kerry Carpenter connected on a home run off Kai-Wei Teng for a plus-28.4 percentage-point swing that briefly gave the Tigers meaningful life in the game. Christian Walker had also contributed a plus-13.0 percentage-point single off Drew Anderson in the seventh to help Houston build its cushion before the eighth.
Among individual performers, Paredes led all players by WPA at plus-41.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Peña posted plus-24.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6 to round out Houston's offensive leadership. Carpenter was Detroit's standout with plus-24.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, though the Tigers could not sustain the threat. On the mound, Bryan King paced Houston's relief corps with plus-13.3 percent WPA, followed by AJ Blubaugh at plus-8.7 percent, and Josh Hader closed it out in the ninth, where Jahmai Jones's strikeout represented a plus-14.4 percentage-point swing that sealed the final margin.