MLB Recap · June 27, 2026

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

HOU8
Final
DET6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
HOU0211001308161
DET0041100006111

The Story

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 8-6 at Comerica Park on June 27, 2026, completing the comeback on the road behind a decisive eighth-inning surge. Houston finished with 16 hits against Detroit's 11, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win, which opened at 48% before first pitch, fell to 0% by the final out.

The game's single most consequential moment came in the top of the eighth inning, when Isaac Paredes drove a double off Will Vest that swung win probability by plus-39.3 percentage points in Houston's favor. That hit was the backbone of a three-run frame that broke open what had been a competitive contest. Jeremy Peña followed with a single off Vest in the same inning, adding another plus-14.4 percentage points to the Astros' advantage. Detroit's most impactful offensive moment had come earlier, in the bottom of the third, when Kerry Carpenter connected on a home run off Kai-Wei Teng for a plus-28.4 percentage-point swing that briefly gave the Tigers meaningful life in the game. Christian Walker had also contributed a plus-13.0 percentage-point single off Drew Anderson in the seventh to help Houston build its cushion before the eighth.

Among individual performers, Paredes led all players by WPA at plus-41.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Peña posted plus-24.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6 to round out Houston's offensive leadership. Carpenter was Detroit's standout with plus-24.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, though the Tigers could not sustain the threat. On the mound, Bryan King paced Houston's relief corps with plus-13.3 percent WPA, followed by AJ Blubaugh at plus-8.7 percent, and Josh Hader closed it out in the ninth, where Jahmai Jones's strikeout represented a plus-14.4 percentage-point swing that sealed the final margin.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025HOU bats firstFinalDET win %HOU win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Isaac Paredes Double
Top 8th · off Will Vest
+39.3%
Kerry Carpenter Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Kai-Wei Teng
+28.4%
Jeremy Peña Single
Top 8th · off Will Vest
+14.4%
Jahmai Jones Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Josh Hader
+14.4%
Christian Walker Single
Top 7th · off Drew Anderson
+13.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Isaac Paredes+41.9%+2.1 RE24
Kerry Carpenter+24.8%+2.4 RE24
Jeremy Peña+24.4%+1.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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