Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Washington Nationals 3-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2026, in a game that was largely defined by a pivotal fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a near-even split, estimating a 52% home win probability for Baltimore, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100% as the Orioles controlled the contest from the middle innings onward. Baltimore broke the scoreless tie in the bottom of the fourth when Blaze Alexander delivered a single off Andrew Alvarez, a hit that carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 17.7%. The Nationals threatened in the top of that same inning, but Andrés Chaparro grounded into a fielder's choice off Trevor Rogers, a play that swung the win probability 9.5 points in Baltimore's favor and extinguished the rally before it could take hold.

Washington managed a brief response in the top of the fifth when Keibert Ruiz singled off Trevor Rogers to manufacture the Nationals' lone run, a hit worth plus 9.9% in win-probability terms, but the Orioles answered with a seventh-inning insurance run on a Coby Mayo double off Brad Lord that added 12.9 percentage points to Baltimore's chances. Dylan Crews countered with a double of his own in the top half of the seventh against Rogers, worth plus 9.8%, but Washington could not convert the opportunity into a run.

Among the standout performers, Coby Mayo led all batters with a plus 15.1% WPA and a plus 1.1 RE24, while Blaze Alexander posted plus 12.9% WPA and a plus 1.2 RE24, the highest run-expectancy contribution of any hitter in the game. On the mound, Trevor Rogers paced all pitchers at plus 14.9% WPA, with Tyler Wells adding plus 11.3% and Grant Wolfram contributing plus 8.1% as Baltimore's staff held the Nationals to just five hits across nine innings.