Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros edged the Detroit Tigers 2-1 at Comerica Park on June 25, 2026, in a tight, low-scoring contest that stayed scoreless through five innings before Houston broke through in the sixth. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with a near-even split, giving Detroit a 48% pre-game win probability, but by the final out that figure had fallen to zero.
The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth, when Taylor Trammell connected on a solo home run off Troy Melton, a swing that added 14.3% in win probability and ultimately proved to be the game's most consequential offensive moment. Houston added an insurance run in the top of the ninth off Enyel De Los Santos to push the lead to two. Detroit mounted a response in the bottom half, as Riley Greene's single added 9.0% in win probability for the Tigers and Dillon Dingler followed with a solo home run to make it a one-run game. The rally fell short, however, when Colt Keith grounded into a double play, a sequence that swung win probability 16.3% back in Houston's favor and ended the threat.
On the pitching side, AJ Blubaugh was the model's standout performer, posting a game-high 33.0% in win probability added, with Tatsuya Imai close behind at 28.7%. Melton contributed 15.7% of his own despite surrendering the Trammell home run. Trammell led all batters with a 12.6% WPA and 0.8 RE24, while Keith's double play, despite its negative RE24 of -1.1, represented the single biggest positive win-probability swing for Houston's cause in the final inning.