Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 9-4 defeat at Busch Stadium on June 24, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had projected as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for St. Louis and ultimately closing it to zero. Arizona produced a clean 12-hit, zero-error performance against a Cardinals team that committed one error and could not contain a catastrophic fourth inning that effectively decided the contest.

That fourth inning was the game's turning point by a wide margin. The DiamondIQ model's estimates shifted dramatically across a sequence of plays against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore: a Tommy Troy single moved Arizona's win probability by 6.0 percent, a Gabriel Moreno walk added another 6.3 percent, and then Ildemaro Vargas delivered a double that swung win probability by 20.4 percent, the single largest play of the game. LuJames Groover followed with a home run that added a further 17.5 percent, and the Diamondbacks ultimately put up six runs in the frame. St. Louis had managed a modest response with a Blaze Jordan double off Mitch Bratt in the second inning, a 7.2 percent swing that represented the Cardinals' best individual moment, but Arizona had already answered with two more runs in the seventh and one in the eighth before St. Louis scored twice in a meaningless ninth.

Vargas led all players with a cumulative WPA of plus-20.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Groover was close behind at plus-15.7 percent WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-2.2, making the two of them the central figures of the win. Troy contributed plus-6.4 percent WPA as well. On the pitching side, Jonathan Loáisiga led Arizona's relievers with plus-4.1 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Thompson at plus-2.5 percent, as the bullpen held the Cardinals in check through the middle innings and preserved a lead that had been firmly established before the game was three full innings old.