Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Atlanta Braves 1-0 on June 22, 2026, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 43 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game's lone run came in the bottom of the fourth inning when Manny Machado connected on a solo home run off Grant Holmes, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.4 percent in San Diego's favor and ultimately proved to be the only offense either side would generate across nine innings. Atlanta managed seven hits on the night but could not convert, and San Diego's pitching staff held the line the rest of the way.

The ninth inning encapsulated the game's tension most sharply. With Atlanta mounting a final push, Dominic Smith drew a walk off Mason Miller that briefly nudged the Braves' win probability upward by 6.7 percent, but Miller responded by retiring Ozzie Albies on a flyout, costing Atlanta 7.1 percent, and then struck out Mike Yastrzemski to end the threat, the most damaging single play of the night at negative 13.5 percent win probability added for the Braves. Austin Riley had kept Atlanta's hopes alive in the seventh with a single off Michael King worth 6.4 percent WPA, though the Braves could not capitalize.

Michael King was the game's most dominant individual, posting a WPA of plus 41.4 percent to lead all pitchers and earn the win with a commanding performance that kept Atlanta's lineup largely in check. Manny Machado led all hitters with a plus 19.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.5, his fourth-inning blast doing all the damage San Diego would need. Mason Miller closed it out with a plus 15.2 percent WPA, and Adrian Morejon contributed plus 10.8 percent in a three-pitcher shutout that left Atlanta without a run despite out-hitting the Padres four to seven.