MLB Recap · June 21, 2026

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

NYM2
Final
PHI6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYM001001000261
PHI23001000-690

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 6-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 21, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had anticipated, with Philadelphia entering as a 64% pre-game favorite and finishing at 100% implied certainty. The game was effectively decided in the first two innings, with Philadelphia plating two runs in the first and three more in the second to build a lead the Mets never seriously threatened.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Kyle Schwarber's home run off David Peterson generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 12.2%, pushing the Phillies' chances decisively upward. Edmundo Sosa followed with a groundout that nonetheless added another plus 6.0% to Philadelphia's win probability in that same inning, reflecting how thoroughly the Mets' bullpen situation had deteriorated by that point. The Mets' best counterpunch came from Carson Benge, whose third-inning home run off Zack Wheeler produced a plus 4.7% swing, and Jared Young added a walk in the sixth worth plus 4.2%, but neither moment translated into multi-run innings capable of changing the game's trajectory.

Schwarber was the game's standout performer, finishing with a cumulative plus 13.0% WPA and plus 2.8 RE24 to lead all batters. Sosa contributed plus 7.1% WPA, while Benge was the Mets' top offensive contributor at plus 5.8% WPA. On the mound, Zack Wheeler led Philadelphia's pitchers with plus 3.9% WPA, followed by Jonathan Bowlan at plus 3.3% and José Alvarado at plus 2.9%, as the Phillies' staff collectively held the Mets to two runs on six hits while committing no errors.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYM bats firstFinalPHI win %NYM win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 64% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Kyle Schwarber Home Run
Bot 2nd · off David Peterson
+12.2%
Edmundo Sosa Groundout
Bot 2nd · off David Peterson
+6.0%
Carson Benge Home Run
Top 3rd · off Zack Wheeler
+4.7%
Jared Young Walk
Top 6th · off Zack Wheeler
+4.2%
Francisco Alvarez Groundout
Top 2nd · off Zack Wheeler
-4.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyle Schwarber+13.0%+2.8 RE24
Edmundo Sosa+7.1%+0.3 RE24
Carson Benge+5.8%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →