New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| PHI | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 6-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 21, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had anticipated, with Philadelphia entering as a 64% pre-game favorite and finishing at 100% implied certainty. The game was effectively decided in the first two innings, with Philadelphia plating two runs in the first and three more in the second to build a lead the Mets never seriously threatened.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Kyle Schwarber's home run off David Peterson generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 12.2%, pushing the Phillies' chances decisively upward. Edmundo Sosa followed with a groundout that nonetheless added another plus 6.0% to Philadelphia's win probability in that same inning, reflecting how thoroughly the Mets' bullpen situation had deteriorated by that point. The Mets' best counterpunch came from Carson Benge, whose third-inning home run off Zack Wheeler produced a plus 4.7% swing, and Jared Young added a walk in the sixth worth plus 4.2%, but neither moment translated into multi-run innings capable of changing the game's trajectory.
Schwarber was the game's standout performer, finishing with a cumulative plus 13.0% WPA and plus 2.8 RE24 to lead all batters. Sosa contributed plus 7.1% WPA, while Benge was the Mets' top offensive contributor at plus 5.8% WPA. On the mound, Zack Wheeler led Philadelphia's pitchers with plus 3.9% WPA, followed by Jonathan Bowlan at plus 3.3% and José Alvarado at plus 2.9%, as the Phillies' staff collectively held the Mets to two runs on six hits while committing no errors.