San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the San Francisco Giants 4-3 at loanDepot park on June 19, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 62 percent pre-game home win probability and closing at 100 percent as Miami secured the final out. The Marlins built their margin incrementally, scoring in the first, fifth, and seventh innings while the Giants did their most significant damage in a two-run sixth. That sixth inning was the pivot point of the game in both directions: Rafael Devers delivered a home run off Michael Petersen that added 13.6 percentage points of win probability for San Francisco, and Casey Schmitt followed with a single off Tyler Zuber that added another 11.4 points, briefly threatening to flip the game's trajectory. Miami answered immediately in the bottom half, but Connor Norby grounded into a double play off Landen Roupp that erased 8.4 percentage points of Marlins win probability and prevented what could have been a more comfortable cushion.

The decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the seventh when Liam Hicks delivered a single off Sam Hentges that registered a game-high plus-20.3 percent win-probability swing, the hit that effectively sealed Miami's victory. Hicks finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-21.2 percent, while Devers led the Giants with plus-13.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2, reflecting the run value he generated despite being on the losing side. Owen Caissie contributed meaningfully for Miami as well, his fifth-inning double off Landen Roupp producing a plus-8.3 percent WPA swing and the highest RE24 among position players at plus-1.7. On the mound, Landen Roupp paced the pitching staff with plus-17.5 percent WPA, followed by Cade Gibson at plus-16.7 and Pete Fairbanks at plus-15.2, a collective pitching performance that held the Giants' nine-hit attack to three runs and gave Miami enough to work with through nine innings.