Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-3 at Fenway Park on June 18, 2026, completing a come-from-behind win that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston victory fall from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Toronto scored in each of the first two innings and added a run in the seventh on a Nathan Lukes home run off Sonny Gray, a swing that moved win probability 9.8 percent in the Blue Jays' favor. The decisive blow, however, came in the top of the ninth when Brandon Valenzuela doubled off Aroldis Chapman, a hit that shifted win probability by 40.5 percent and proved to be the game's single most consequential offensive play.

Boston had mounted a serious threat in the bottom of the eighth, when back-to-back home runs off Trey Yesavage turned the game's complexion entirely. Caleb Durbin connected for a swing worth 21.9 percent in win probability, followed immediately by an Isiah Kiner-Falefa blast worth an additional 18.8 percent, giving the Red Sox a 3-3 tie and momentum heading into the final frame. The bottom of the ninth, however, ended on a Jarren Duran pop out off Mason Fluharty, a play that swung win probability 31.6 percent back toward Toronto and sealed the outcome.

Valenzuela finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-41.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3, his late double the defining moment of the contest. Durbin contributed plus-17.9 percent WPA despite his team falling short, while Duran's pop out left him at plus-25.5 percent WPA for the game, a reflection of his earlier offensive contributions ultimately undone by that final at-bat. On the mound, Tommy Nance led Blue Jays relievers with plus-6.5 percent WPA, with Sonny Gray posting plus-4.1 percent and Justin Slaten adding plus-3.4 percent in support of the Toronto effort.