Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Colorado Rockies 8-6 at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Chicago win moving from 68% before first pitch to a certainty by game's end. The outcome was effectively settled in the second inning, when the Cubs sent Colorado starter Sean Sullivan through a seven-run frame that broke the game open early. Matt Shaw's triple was the centerpiece of the rally, shifting win probability by 14.6 percentage points and serving as the highest-impact plate appearance of the game. Dansby Swanson added a home run in the same inning for a 5.3-point swing, and Carson Kelly's double contributed another 3.4 points. Ian Happ's flyout, despite resulting in an out, reflected the context of a bases-loaded situation and still registered a 7.1-point swing in Chicago's favor as a run scored. The one blemish on the frame came a half-inning earlier, when Michael Busch's flyout in the first cost the Cubs 5.0 percentage points of win probability, representing the game's single largest negative swing for Chicago.

Colorado made things modestly interesting by outscoring the Cubs 6-1 over the final seven innings, including a three-run eighth, but the deficit proved insurmountable. Shaw finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-13.5% with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Happ was close behind at plus-9.3% WPA. Swanson's home run left him at plus-5.3% WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. Out of the Chicago bullpen, Jacob Webb led all pitchers at plus-2.4% WPA, followed by Caleb Thielbar at plus-2.0% and Hoby Milner at plus-0.8%, as the trio helped preserve the lead through Colorado's late charge. Chicago finished with 12 hits against the Rockies' nine, committing one error to Colorado's none.