Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies silenced Wrigley Field on June 16, 2026, defeating the Chicago Cubs 5-2 despite entering as heavy road underdogs. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had placed the Cubs at a 67 percent pre-game win probability, but that advantage evaporated entirely over the middle innings as Colorado scored all five of its runs across the fourth and fifth frames and never allowed Chicago to meaningfully threaten the lead.

The fourth inning was the decisive turning point. TJ Rumfield's home run off Edward Cabrera shifted win probability 15.5 percent in Colorado's favor, and Willi Castro followed with a double that swung it an additional 13.0 percent, compounding the damage in a single frame that effectively broke the game open. Castro continued his impact in the fifth, where a groundout off Ryan Rolison drove in another run and added 11.3 percent to Colorado's win probability, a notable illustration of how run-scoring situations can inflate the value of otherwise routine contact. Chicago's best moment came in the seventh when Ian Happ grounded out with runners on, a play that shifted the Cubs' outlook by 8.3 percent in the wrong direction, and a ninth-inning pop out by Alex Bregman off Jaden Hill sealed the final 6.3 percent swing in Colorado's favor.

Castro finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus-24.3 and an RE24 of plus-2.3, while Rumfield posted a plus-13.8 WPA. On the mound, Blas Castaño led Colorado's pitching staff with a plus-8.5 WPA, followed closely by Ryan Feltner at plus-8.3, as the Rockies held a seven-hit Cubs lineup to two runs and six scoreless innings after the second.