Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

Seattle closed out a 3-1 win over Baltimore at T-Mobile Park on June 16, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the start, with the Mariners entering at a 59 percent pre-game home win probability and finishing at 100 percent. The Orioles scratched across the game's first run in the top of the first inning but never added to it, finishing with just three hits and no errors across nine innings while Seattle's pitching staff methodically shut the door.

The decisive sequence arrived in the seventh inning, when Cal Raleigh delivered a single off Grant Wolfram that shifted win probability by plus 16.0 percent, the largest single-play swing of the game. That hit was the centerpiece of a two-run frame that effectively ended Baltimore's realistic path to a comeback. Seattle had already begun chipping away in the third, when Julio Rodríguez singled off Brandon Young for a plus 9.8 percent swing, accounting for the Mariners' first run of the game. Baltimore's best moment of hope came in the top of the seventh when Pete Alonso was hit by a pitch off Logan Gilbert for a plus 5.7 percent move, but the Orioles could not convert.

On the individual leaderboard, Raleigh finished as Seattle's top offensive contributor at plus 13.1 percent WPA and 0.7 RE24, while J.P. Crawford added plus 6.4 percent WPA and Miles Mastrobuoni contributed plus 3.8 percent. The pitching staff was equally efficient, with Logan Gilbert leading all pitchers at plus 27.4 percent WPA, Brandon Young adding plus 18.8 percent, and Eduard Bazardo closing things out with plus 8.1 percent, holding Baltimore to a quiet final two innings.