Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Detroit Tigers 3-2 at Progressive Field on June 12, 2026, in a game that was closer on the scoreboard than the DiamondIQ model's estimate suggested by the end, with Cleveland's pre-game home win probability of 66% climbing to 100% at the final out. Cleveland built its advantage early, with Brayan Rocchio delivering a triple off Jack Flaherty in the bottom of the second that generated an 8.0% swing in win probability, and the Guardians scored twice in that frame to stake out a 2-0 lead. Steven Kwan added to Cleveland's cushion in the bottom of the sixth, his single off Drew Anderson producing a 9.1% win-probability swing that pushed the Guardians to their final margin of three runs.

Detroit mounted a challenge through James Outman, whose home run off Tanner Bibee in the third generated a 9.7% swing, and Spencer Torkelson, who went deep against Bibee again in the eighth for a 14.7% win-probability addition that made it a one-run game. Ultimately, however, Cleveland's bullpen shut the door, with a Patrick Bailey strikeout off Ty Madden in the bottom of the eighth swinging win probability 7.8% back toward the Guardians and effectively sealing the outcome.

By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, the most impactful individual in the game was Patrick Bailey, who finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-18.7% and an RE24 of plus-1.4, providing the game's single largest positive contribution. On the pitching side, Cade Smith led all hurlers with a plus-15.2% WPA, followed by Hunter Gaddis at plus-10.8%, as Cleveland's relief corps preserved what the offense had built across nine innings on nine hits.