San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the San Diego Padres 7-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 12, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from an even 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Baltimore did its most decisive damage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and three more in the second to effectively put the game away before San Diego could establish any foothold. The Padres managed single runs in the first, second, and fifth innings but never threatened to erase the deficit, finishing with three runs on seven hits and no errors while the Orioles posted seven runs on eight hits.

The second inning proved to be the turning point of the contest. Pete Alonso delivered a single off Griffin Canning that added 8.9 percent to Baltimore's win probability, the single largest positive swing of the game, while Samuel Basallo drew a strikeout call that contributed another 7.7 percent in the same frame. On the San Diego side, Manny Machado's groundout against Shane Baz in the top of the second represented the biggest negative swing of the game at minus 6.6 percent, extinguishing a potential Padres rally. Gunnar Henderson added a home run off Canning in the fourth inning for an additional 4.4 percent swing, and Coby Mayo's groundout in the first contributed 4.5 percent in Baltimore's favor.

Among individual performers, Basallo led all batters with a plus 9.7 percent WPA, while Alonso followed at plus 9.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.1, reflecting meaningful run-environment contribution. Henderson posted plus 7.3 percent WPA with the game's top RE24 among batters at plus 2.3. On the mound, Shane Baz led Baltimore's pitching staff with plus 6.2 percent WPA, supported by Anthony Nunez at plus 3.3 percent and Keegan Akin at plus 2.9 percent. Griffin Canning absorbed the bulk of the damage for San Diego, surrendering key hits and the Henderson home run across the game's most consequential innings.