Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Pittsburgh Pirates an 8-3 defeat at PNC Park on June 12, 2026, pulling away with a four-run seventh inning that effectively ended any chance of a Pittsburgh comeback. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the night with Pittsburgh holding a 54% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Miami's offense took control across the middle and late frames.

The decisive stretch began in the fifth inning, where Liam Hicks delivered a double off Braxton Ashcraft that shifted win probability 12.8 points in Miami's favor, part of a two-run frame that gave the Marlins their first real traction. Pittsburgh responded briefly when Endy Rodríguez connected on a home run off Sandy Alcantara in the bottom of the fifth, a swing worth plus-13.1 points for the Pirates and the largest single-play gain of the night for the home club. That moment proved fleeting, however, as Miami's seventh-inning eruption against Wilber Dotel settled the contest decisively. Owen Caissie's double led the charge at plus-13.7 points of win probability added, followed by a Kyle Stowers walk worth 12.5 points and a Heriberto Hernández single adding another 10.8, combining to produce four runs that rendered the final three outs a formality.

By the model's accounting, Hicks finished as Miami's most impactful player at plus-23.6% WPA and a run-expectancy contribution of plus-3.0 RE24, while Rodriguez led Pittsburgh's individual performers at plus-19.2% WPA despite being on the losing side. Kyle Stowers added plus-16.1% WPA for the Marlins. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara posted the top pitching WPA at plus-9.3 despite surrendering the Rodríguez home run, as Miami's bullpen held Pittsburgh's lineup in check through the final frames. The Marlins finished with 11 hits and no errors against Pittsburgh's six hits and one miscue.