Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the San Francisco Giants a 5-1 defeat at Oracle Park on June 12, 2026, holding a team that entered with a 43% DiamondIQ model win probability scoreless until a lone run in the ninth made the final margin cosmetic. The Cubs built their lead methodically, breaking through in the fourth inning against Landen Roupp when Seiya Suzuki delivered a double that shifted the Cubs' win probability by 8.6 percentage points, setting the table for Nico Hoerner's sacrifice fly that added another 9.6 points to Chicago's advantage. The Giants managed to answer in the bottom of the fourth when Bryce Eldridge singled off Javier Assad to nudge San Francisco's prospects by 4.7 points, but the threat stalled there.
Michael Busch delivered the decisive blow in the fifth inning, connecting for a home run off Erik Miller that swung win probability 19.7 points in Chicago's favor and effectively closed the door on any Giants comeback. Busch finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-20.9% and a RE24 of plus-2.6. Suzuki and Hoerner supported him well, finishing with WPA figures of plus-10.4% and plus-7.9% respectively. On the mound, Javier Assad was the story, contributing plus-17.3% in pitching WPA as he kept a Giants lineup quiet through the bulk of the contest. Hoby Milner and JT Brubaker handled supporting work, adding plus-1.7% and plus-0.7% in win probability, completing a pitching effort that left San Francisco's DiamondIQ model estimate at exactly zero by the final out.