MLB Recap · June 12, 2026

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

CHC5
Final
SF1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CHC000230000562
SF000000001140

The Story

The Chicago Cubs handed the San Francisco Giants a 5-1 defeat at Oracle Park on June 12, 2026, holding a team that entered with a 43% DiamondIQ model win probability scoreless until a lone run in the ninth made the final margin cosmetic. The Cubs built their lead methodically, breaking through in the fourth inning against Landen Roupp when Seiya Suzuki delivered a double that shifted the Cubs' win probability by 8.6 percentage points, setting the table for Nico Hoerner's sacrifice fly that added another 9.6 points to Chicago's advantage. The Giants managed to answer in the bottom of the fourth when Bryce Eldridge singled off Javier Assad to nudge San Francisco's prospects by 4.7 points, but the threat stalled there.

Michael Busch delivered the decisive blow in the fifth inning, connecting for a home run off Erik Miller that swung win probability 19.7 points in Chicago's favor and effectively closed the door on any Giants comeback. Busch finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-20.9% and a RE24 of plus-2.6. Suzuki and Hoerner supported him well, finishing with WPA figures of plus-10.4% and plus-7.9% respectively. On the mound, Javier Assad was the story, contributing plus-17.3% in pitching WPA as he kept a Giants lineup quiet through the bulk of the contest. Hoby Milner and JT Brubaker handled supporting work, adding plus-1.7% and plus-0.7% in win probability, completing a pitching effort that left San Francisco's DiamondIQ model estimate at exactly zero by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CHC bats firstFinalSF win %CHC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Michael Busch Home Run
Top 5th · off Erik Miller
+19.7%
Nico Hoerner Sac Fly
Top 4th · off Landen Roupp
+9.6%
Seiya Suzuki Double
Top 4th · off Landen Roupp
+8.6%
Moisés Ballesteros Groundout
Top 2nd · off Landen Roupp
-5.1%
Bryce Eldridge Single
Bot 4th · off Javier Assad
+4.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Michael Busch+20.9%+2.6 RE24
Seiya Suzuki+10.4%+0.8 RE24
Nico Hoerner+7.9%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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