Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Atlanta Braves 7-5 on June 12, 2026, at Citi Field, rallying from a pregame win probability of just 34 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate to close out the game at 100 percent certainty. The outcome was shaped early and decisively, with the Mets building their advantage in the second inning against Spencer Strider and never fully relinquishing control despite an Atlanta charge in the top of the eighth.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Bo Bichette delivered a home run off Strider that swung win probability by 21.5 percentage points in New York's favor, the single largest play of the game. Juan Soto followed with a pop out that nonetheless carried a 12.6 percent win-probability swing in the Mets' direction as the inning had already done significant damage, with New York plating four runs in that frame alone. Earlier, A.J. Ewing's strikeout in the bottom of the first added 8.7 percentage points to the Mets' outlook. Atlanta's best opportunity came in the top of the eighth, when the Braves pushed across two runs, but Rowdy Tellez's flyout off Devin Williams cost the club 8.1 percentage points of win probability, ending the threat with the deficit still intact.

Bichette finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, posting a WPA of plus 25.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 4.3, with Soto contributing plus 14.8 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Austin Riley was the top Brave by WPA at plus 9.5 percent despite the loss. On the mound, Nolan McLean led all pitchers with a plus 10.6 percent WPA, followed by Devin Williams at plus 6.9 and Huascar Brazobán at plus 4.5, a collective bullpen effort that held Atlanta's late rally well short of completion.