Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies walked off the Chicago Cubs 3-2 at Coors Field on June 10, 2026, in a game that stayed scoreless deep into the middle innings before a pair of decisive swings and a clutch single rewrote the outcome in the final two frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Colorado entering the night as a 42 percent home-side proposition, a number that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the game's final out.
The pivotal sequence began in the bottom of the eighth, when TJ Rumfield connected on a home run off Jacob Webb, a swing that shifted Colorado's win probability by plus-38.0 percent and stood as the single most impactful play of the night. Chicago answered immediately in the top of the ninth, as Ian Happ hit a solo home run off Antonio Senzatela — a plus-34.2 percent swing — to knot the game and inject real uncertainty back into the contest. That tension evaporated quickly, however, when Nico Hoerner grounded into a double play against Senzatela, a minus-18.2 percent turn that extinguished the Cubs' threat, and Brett Sullivan followed in the bottom half with a walk-off single off Daniel Palencia worth plus-21.5 percent in win probability, ending the game in Colorado's favor. Pete Crow-Armstrong had provided Chicago's first significant threat with a triple in the fourth off Michael Lorenzen, a plus-9.8 percent moment that ultimately went unfinished.
On the individual ledger, Rumfield was Colorado's most valuable performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-34.7 and an RE24 of plus-1.6. Happ led Chicago's side with a plus-28.2 WPA and 0.4 RE24, while Sullivan posted plus-21.5 WPA on the strength of his walk-off blow. Among pitchers, Shota Imanaga was the most impactful arm by WPA at plus-19.0 for the Cubs, with Caleb Thielbar adding plus-14.9. Michael Lorenzen contributed plus-13.5 WPA for the Rockies despite surrendering the Crow-Armstrong triple, his overall outing proving more helpful than harmful in the DiamondIQ model's accounting.