Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-3 on June 9, 2026, at Tropicana Field, holding on after a late Boston rally fell short. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Tampa Bay as a heavy favorite at 72% pre-game home win probability, and that estimate reached 100% by the final out despite a two-run Boston eighth inning that briefly tightened the contest.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, when the Rays plated three runs to take control of a scoreless game. Ben Williamson's double off Payton Tolle was the highest-leverage swing in that half-inning, adding 12.1% in win probability, followed closely by Nick Fortes, who also doubled off Tolle for an additional 10.9% shift. Cedric Mullins then added a single, worth 9.5% in win probability, to cap the frame. Boston answered with a run in the third and added a run in the sixth to trail 4-2, but the eighth inning proved to be both the Red Sox's best moment and their undoing. Marcelo Mayer's double off Nick Martinez swung win probability 17.3% in Boston's favor, making it the single largest play of the game by that measure. However, Ceddanne Rafaela's groundout to end the threat off Kevin Kelly cost Boston 11.4% in win probability, effectively closing the door on the comeback.

On the individual side, Jarren Duran paced all position players with a WPA of plus 15.5% and an RE24 of plus 0.9, while Mayer finished at plus 11.0% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 despite the loss. In the bullpen, Bryan Baker led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 15.2%, and Kevin Kelly added plus 10.8%, preserving the lead in the eighth when it mattered most. Tampa Bay finished with 12 hits against Boston's 6, and the Rays committed no errors compared to one for Boston, reflecting a clean execution that matched the model's pre-game lean toward the home side.