San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the San Diego Padres 3-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 3, 2026, in a low-scoring game that remained tightly contested through six innings before a decisive seventh inning shifted the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 53 percent home win probability for Philadelphia, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. San Diego managed a run in the seventh and another in the eighth, but it was not enough to overcome a critical two-run burst from the Phillies in the bottom of the seventh.

The pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the seventh inning against Padres reliever Jason Adam. J.T. Realmuto delivered the game's single biggest positive swing, a home run that added 15.8 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, followed almost immediately by Kyle Schwarber's home run, which added another 14.1 percent. Those two swings effectively decided the contest. San Diego mounted a threat in the top of the eighth, as Jackson Merrill's single in the seventh had already added 14.3 percent from the Padres' perspective, and Xander Bogaerts reached on a hit by pitch off Brad Keller to add 14.8 percent, but Ty France's forceout in that same frame cost the Padres 17.0 percent in win probability and extinguished the rally.

Among individual performers, Realmuto led all batters with a WPA of plus-13.2 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Schwarber posted plus-12.7 WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. Bryson Stott added plus-11.0 WPA on the pitching side, Cristopher Sanchez was the standout with plus-20.7 WPA, with Jhoan Duran and Walker Buehler each contributing plus-15.2 WPA in support of a Phillies staff that kept San Diego's six hits from doing lasting damage.