San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the San Diego Padres 4-2 at Nationals Park on May 31, 2026, a game that began with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an even 50 percent home win probability and closed with Washington's chances at 100 percent. The Nationals built their lead methodically through the middle innings, with Luis García Jr. opening the scoring in the bottom of the fourth on a home run off Griffin Canning that swung win probability 11.4 points in Washington's favor. James Wood then delivered the game's single most impactful plate appearance in the bottom of the fifth, a home run also off Canning that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 17.5 percentage points and gave Washington a two-run cushion it would not relinquish.

San Diego mounted its most credible threat in the top of the seventh, when Ty France laced a double off Zack Littell to move the Padres' win probability 14.5 points in their direction. The rally stalled, however, when Orlando Ribalta induced a strikeout double play off Miguel Andujar, a sequence that swung 9.2 percentage points back toward Washington and effectively ended the Padres' chances of a comeback. Andrés Chaparro then answered in the bottom half with a double off Adrian Morejon worth 11.6 percentage points, pushing the Nationals back to a comfortable position and accounting for Washington's final insurance run of the inning.

Among individual performers, James Wood led all batters with a WPA of plus 12.6 and an RE24 of plus 1.5, while Chaparro posted plus 11.6 WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, and García Jr. contributed plus 8.9 WPA. On the mound, Ribalta was the most impactful arm in the game at plus 14.9 WPA, with Beeter and Littell adding plus 6.3 and plus 6.0, respectively. San Diego managed six hits and committed no errors but could not overcome a Washington lineup that produced nine hits and converted its scoring chances at the moments that mattered most.