Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Boston Red Sox 4-3 at Progressive Field on May 29, 2026, in a game that was decided almost entirely in the first inning and then survived through a tense Boston rally late. Cleveland struck for all four of its runs in the bottom of the first, building a lead that would prove just sufficient, as the Red Sox managed three runs in the fifth but could not add to that total over the final four innings. Boston finished with 11 hits but left runners on base at critical moments, while Cleveland's bullpen ultimately preserved what the offense had built early.

The decisive win-probability swings centered on two separate innings. In the top of the fifth, Caleb Durbin's double off Slade Cecconi added 18.6 percentage points to Boston's win probability, the single largest play of the game by that measure, and Marcelo Mayer's single in the same frame contributed another 10.1 points as the Red Sox made their push. Boston's chances, however, collapsed in the ninth against Cade Smith, who delivered the highest WPA figure of any pitcher at plus 15.2 points. Mayer struck out with a win-probability impact of negative 10.1 points, and Durbin followed with a strikeout that cost another 8.9 points, ending the threat and the game. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's single earlier in the ninth had briefly extended Boston's hopes, adding 10.6 points, but Smith closed the door.

Among position players, Angel Martínez led all batters with a WPA of plus 6.9 and a RE24 of plus 0.6, while Durbin finished at plus 5.0 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 despite his final at-bat. Colin Holderman also factored prominently on the mound, posting plus 14.4 WPA as part of a Cleveland bullpen that protected the early advantage. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 70 percent pre-game win probability for the Guardians and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Cleveland's first-inning burst and late relief work controlled the outcome.