San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Washington Nationals 7-5 at Nationals Park on May 29, 2026, completing the game with a DiamondIQ model win probability that moved from a 47 percent pre-game edge for Washington all the way to zero. San Diego trailed early as the Nationals built a 3-1 lead through two innings, but the Padres steadily clawed back before seizing control in the middle frames. The decisive sequence came in the sixth and seventh innings, when Ty France and Jackson Merrill delivered back-to-back home runs off Mitchell Parker that shifted the complexion of the game entirely. France's solo shot in the sixth added 13.8 percentage points of win probability, and Merrill's home run in the seventh swung things by 30.1 points, the single largest play of the contest and the moment that effectively ended Washington's realistic path to victory.

Merrill finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-24.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, his seventh-inning blast the signature moment of San Diego's two-run frame that pushed the lead to 7-4. France was nearly as impactful at plus-17.7 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, and James Wood added plus-13.4 percent WPA to round out a productive San Diego lineup that finished with ten hits. Washington had opportunities to respond, most notably in the fifth when Jacob Young's single off Jeremiah Estrada generated plus-11.6 points of win probability for the home side, but the Nationals could not convert that momentum into a lead change. In the eighth, Luis Garcia Jr.'s lineout against Mason Miller cost Washington 20.9 points of win probability, and Daylen Lile's strikeout to end the ninth added 12.0 points back to San Diego's ledger as Miller closed the game out.

On the pitching side, Adrian Morejon led all arms with plus-14.3 percent WPA, followed by Yuki Matsui at plus-11.2 percent and Orlando Ribalta at plus-6.3 percent, as the Padres bullpen collectively held Washington scoreless over the final four innings after the Nationals had threatened to make it a game. Mitchell Parker absorbed the damage from both home runs in the middle innings and was the central figure in San Diego's offensive surge. The final margin of 7-5 reflected a game that was genuinely competitive through five innings before Merrill and France turned it decisively in the Padres' favor.