Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Chicago Cubs 6-5 at Busch Stadium on May 29, 2026, in a game that was tighter than the final score suggests until the Cardinals bullpen slammed the door. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving St. Louis a 55 percent home win probability, and while the two teams traded three runs apiece in the first inning to set a frenetic early tone, the Cardinals steadily pulled ahead through the middle innings before finishing at 100 percent certainty by the final out.
The game's decisive swings came in the fourth and fifth innings, where Thomas Saggese and Iván Herrera each took Cubs starter Shota Imanaga deep. Saggese's home run in the bottom of the fourth added 12.3 percent to St. Louis's win probability, though José Fermín partially erased his own team's momentum in that same frame by grounding into a double play, a swing of negative 9.4 percent. Herrera answered in the fifth with a solo shot that added another 13.0 percent for the Cardinals. Fermín then delivered again in the bottom of the eighth with a run-scoring single off Phil Maton worth an additional 13.0 percent, which proved to be the game-deciding blow. Pete Crow-Armstrong's double off Riley O'Brien in the top of the ninth added 8.9 percent for Chicago, but the Cubs could not convert the threat into a tying run.
By WPA, Saggese led all batters at plus 11.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.8, while Herrera contributed plus 7.5 percent and Seiya Suzuki added plus 7.3 percent on the Cubs' side. The Cardinals bullpen was equally decisive, with Ryne Stanek posting the highest pitching WPA at plus 10.8 percent, followed by JoJo Romero at plus 8.5 percent and Ethan Roberts at plus 8.4 percent. Chicago finished with more hits, 11 to nine, but the Cardinals converted their opportunities at critical leverage points and the DiamondIQ model favored St. Louis for most of the contest.