Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays rallied past the Baltimore Orioles 6-5 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 29, 2026, erasing a deficit built through the first six innings with a four-run seventh and two-run eighth to hand Baltimore a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate pegged as an increasingly certain outcome, finishing with a 0% home win probability after entering the game with the Orioles as a virtual coin-flip favorite at 49%.

The decisive turning point came in the top of the seventh, when Charles McAdoo connected for a home run off Trevor Rogers, a swing worth +16.2% in win probability that broke Baltimore's grip on the game. Toronto then extended its lead in the eighth on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. double off Yennier Cano, the most impactful offensive play of the night at +25.5% win probability, pushing the Blue Jays into a position Baltimore could not recover from. Kazuma Okamoto also contributed meaningfully, finishing with a +12.9% WPA and a game-high +1.8 RE24 among position players. Baltimore's most significant threat came in the bottom of the ninth, where Adley Rutschman grounded out against Braydon Fisher in a moment that paradoxically registered as the game's largest single swing at +27.0% win probability for the batting team, reflecting how desperately the Orioles needed base runners at that stage. Despite finishing as the top batter by WPA at +30.9%, Rutschman's efforts came too late.

On the pitching side, Mason Fluharty was the standout for Toronto, posting a +24.6% WPA, with his strikeout of Blaze Alexander in the bottom of the eighth worth -12.9% in win probability against the Orioles at a critical juncture. Keegan Akin added +15.3% WPA in relief, and the Blue Jays bullpen ultimately protected the one-run lead through the final frames. Baltimore's errors-free defensive night was not enough to offset Toronto's late-inning surge, as the Blue Jays finished with ten hits against eight for the Orioles.