Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a 10-4 defeat at PNC Park on May 27, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 52 percent in favor of Pittsburgh before swinging decisively toward Chicago. The Cubs scored in the first two innings to take an early 3-0 lead, but Pittsburgh answered in the bottom of the third when Brandon Lowe connected on a home run off Jameson Taillon, the single most impactful play of the game by win probability, shifting the outlook by 26.8 percentage points in the Pirates' favor. Konnor Griffin added another home run off Taillon in the fourth, a swing worth 12.1 percentage points, and for a stretch the home side appeared to have genuine momentum.

Chicago ultimately buried Pittsburgh with a six-run seventh inning that rendered the outcome certain. Ian Happ's home run off Yohan Ramírez added 19.0 percentage points to the Cubs' win probability, and Alex Bregman followed with a double off the same pitcher worth 14.0 percentage points, a two-play sequence that effectively closed the door on any Pittsburgh rally. Pete Crow-Armstrong had also contributed a double off Bubba Chandler in the fourth, a 9.2-point swing that helped the Cubs maintain their early foothold. By the final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win had fallen to zero percent.

Lowe finished as the top individual performer by WPA at plus-24.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, though his effort came in a losing cause. Bregman led Chicago's contributors at plus-15.9 percent WPA, followed closely by Happ at plus-14.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.3. On the mound, Jacob Webb was the most valuable reliever by win probability added at plus-7.1 percent, anchoring a bullpen effort that kept Pittsburgh scoreless over the final six innings as Chicago's 14-hit attack produced a comfortable final margin.