Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Toronto Blue Jays an 8-2 defeat at Rogers Centre on May 25, 2026, handing Toronto its final win probability down to zero from a 53 percent pre-game advantage the DiamondIQ model had assigned the home side. Miami's offense was quiet through the first four innings before the game's decisive sequence began to unfold, with a trio of high-leverage plays in the fifth and sixth innings ultimately breaking the contest open beyond recovery.

The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth, where Yohendrick Piñango's single off Janson Junk represented the game's single largest positive swing, adding 16.4 percent win probability for Toronto in a moment that briefly suggested the Blue Jays might claw back. But Miami answered decisively in the top of the sixth against Trey Yesavage, when Javier Sanoja laced a double worth 15.7 percent win probability, quickly followed by Kyle Stowers adding a double of his own for another 14.2 percent swing. That back-to-back punch in the sixth, combined with three Miami runs in the inning, effectively settled matters. Toronto added a run in the sixth via Ernie Clement's home run off Lake Bachar, a swing worth 8.0 percent, but it amounted to little more than cosmetic damage given Miami's cushion. The Marlins then piled on three more in the eighth to set the final margin.

Stowers and Sanoja paced Miami's offense by WPA, finishing at plus-19.7 and plus-19.5 percent respectively, with Stowers also leading position players in run expectancy at plus-1.8 RE24. Owen Caissie contributed a plus-8.4 percent WPA performance of his own. On the pitching side, Janson Junk was the DiamondIQ model's top performer despite surrendering Piñango's key single, finishing with plus-17.7 percent WPA overall as he limited Toronto's threat and kept Miami's lead intact through the middle innings. Andrew Nardi and Lake Bachar also posted positive WPA figures in relief as Miami completed a clean nine innings without an error.