Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Toronto Blue Jays a 4-1 defeat at Rogers Centre on May 24, 2026, building their lead methodically before a decisive sixth-inning blow sealed the outcome. Pittsburgh scored in each of the first two innings to take an early 2-0 advantage, and though Toronto managed to answer with a run in the bottom of the fourth — Ernie Clement's single off Mitch Keller generating the game's second-largest swing in Toronto's favor at +11.4% win probability — the Blue Jays were unable to sustain any meaningful threat. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Toronto at a 50% win probability, a figure that eroded steadily and closed at 0% by the final out.

The defining moment came in the top of the sixth, when Esmerlyn Valdez drove a home run off Chase Lee that shifted win probability by +20.3%, the largest single-play swing of the contest. That two-run cushion proved insurmountable. Valdez finished as the game's top offensive performer with a WPA of +17.7% and an RE24 of +1.2, while Brandon Valenzuela contributed +12.5% WPA and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. added +8.6% WPA on the Pittsburgh side. Toronto's most damaging moments came at the plate in negative fashion, with Andrés Giménez's strikeout against Keller in the second costing the Blue Jays 7.5% in win probability, and Yohendrick Piñango's strikeout in the fifth subtracting another 6.2%.

On the mound, Mitch Keller was the central figure, accumulating a game-high +25.6% WPA for Pittsburgh while repeatedly neutralizing Toronto's lineup in key situations. Mason Montgomery followed with +18.3% WPA, and his work in the seventh — retiring Lenyn Sosa on a groundout that swung win probability 8.3% in Pittsburgh's direction — was among the quieter but consequential moments of the late innings. Dylan Cease chipped in +4.7% WPA to round out a Pittsburgh pitching effort that held Toronto to one run on five hits across nine innings.