Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins took a 4-2 decision from the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on May 23, 2026, handing Boston a defeat that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in full, swinging from a 49 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. Minnesota scored twice in the first inning and added two more in the fifth, while Boston managed single runs in the fourth and ninth, never mounting a sustained threat against a Twins pitching staff that dominated the proceedings. The Twins out-hit the Red Sox 12 to 5, with each side committing one error in a game that was ultimately decided by the visitors' ability to capitalize at key moments.
The decisive shift in the game's probability came in the top of the fifth, when Orlando Arcia laced a single off Brayan Bello that carried an 11.8 percent win-probability swing in Minnesota's favor, the single most impactful play of the afternoon. Boston had its best opportunity to respond in the seventh, when Nick Sogard drew a walk off Kendry Rojas to generate an 8.7 percent swing toward the home side, but Andruw Monasterio immediately followed by popping out, erasing 7.8 percent of that gained equity and effectively extinguishing the rally. Earlier, Sogard's ground into a double play in the second had cost Boston 8.8 percent win probability against Taj Bradley, a sequence that set the tone for how infrequently the Red Sox converted their chances.
Among the standout performers, Ceddanne Rafaela led all position players with a 17.8 percent WPA and a 1.3 RE24, anchored by a fourth-inning double off Bradley that generated 7.4 percent in win probability for Boston. On the Twins' side, Arcia finished at plus-11.0 percent WPA with a 1.1 RE24, and Trevor Larnach contributed plus-7.5 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24. The pitching story belonged to Taj Bradley, whose plus-20.0 percent WPA led everyone in the game, with Kendry Rojas close behind at plus-17.5 percent, together forming the backbone of the effort that kept Boston's offense contained to five hits across nine innings.