Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-4 at Chase Field on May 23, 2026, in a game that was closer than the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 69 percent home win probability might have suggested, though the model's final read settled at 100 percent in Arizona's favor. The game's decisive early sequence came in the bottom of the third, when Nolan Arenado's double off Michael Lorenzen shifted win probability by 14.3 percent, setting the table for a three-run Arizona frame. Lorenzen continued to struggle into the fourth, surrendering a Ketel Marte home run that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-18.6 percent. Colorado answered with two runs of its own in the top half of that inning, with Troy Johnston's single off Zac Gallen adding 12.6 percent in win probability and keeping the Rockies within reach.

The Rockies mounted a genuine threat in the top of the eighth when TJ Rumfield connected on a solo home run off Brandon Pfaadt, a swing worth plus-14.7 percent in win probability that pulled Colorado to within one run. However, the inning's potential evaporated when Chad Stevens flew out against Kevin Ginkel, a negative-13.2 percent swing that effectively closed the door on the Colorado rally. Ginkel finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-18.6 percent, with Paul Sewald adding plus-15.2 percent to secure the Arizona win. Among position players, Johnston led all batters with plus-26.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Marte posted plus-23.8 percent WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-2.7, underscoring his central role in Arizona's offense throughout the contest.