New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at loanDepot park on May 22, 2026, a tightly contested game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 55 percent home win probability and ultimately closed at 100 percent. Miami scored in the first inning and added what proved to be the decisive run in the fourth, while New York managed just three hits and never led. The Marlins' pitching staff was central to the outcome, with Eury Pérez leading all players with a plus-26.0 percent win-probability contribution, a performance that kept the Mets largely in check through the early and middle frames.

The game's most consequential offensive moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when Owen Caissie delivered a single off Sean Manaea that added 10.0 percent to Miami's win probability. Caissie finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-16.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7, making him the clear offensive catalyst. A potential Mets threat in the seventh was extinguished when Joe Mack grounded into a double play off Jonah Tong, a play that cost New York 7.3 percent in win probability. Otto Lopez contributed a groundout in the bottom of the eighth off Tong that added 7.8 percent to Miami's side, and Esteury Ruiz chipped in a plus-5.3 percent WPA contribution as well.

Pete Fairbanks closed the game with precision, posting a plus-15.2 percent WPA contribution as New York's final hopes evaporated in the ninth. Nick Morabito struck out and Bo Bichette flew out against Fairbanks, costing the Mets 7.1 and 6.8 percent in win probability respectively. Andrew Nardi also contributed plus-9.6 percent WPA in relief. The Marlins did not commit an error and held the Mets to a 1-for-3 hit line by inning through the middle of the game, a result that reflected a collectively dominant pitching effort across the staff.