Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handed the Chicago Cubs a 4-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on May 22, 2026, completing a comeback from a pre-game position of considerable disadvantage. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the night with a 70 percent home win probability for Chicago, but that figure eroded to zero by the final out, a reflection of how thoroughly Houston controlled the game's critical moments despite the Cubs holding the early edge on paper.

Houston built its advantage methodically, with Christian Vázquez delivering the game's first significant blow in the top of the third, a home run off Jameson Taillon that carried a win-probability swing of plus 10.5 percent by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Astros pushed across two more runs in the fourth and one in the fifth to extend to a 4-0 lead. Chicago responded in the bottom of the sixth when Pete Crow-Armstrong connected on a home run off Steven Okert, a swing worth plus 15.1 percent in win probability that briefly tightened the game to 4-2 and set up a tense final three innings. However, the Cubs' rally stalled there and never fully materialized.

The game's most decisive sequence came in the eighth, when Nico Hoerner's forceout against Bryan King drained 16.4 percent from Chicago's win probability, effectively sealing Houston's path to victory. Ian Happ's pop out to King in the ninth, worth 14.4 percent, closed the door entirely. Spencer Arrighetti was the model's top performer on the mound with a plus 29.5 percent WPA contribution, while Crow-Armstrong led all batters at plus 19.4 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24 despite the Cubs falling short. Vázquez and Alex Bregman rounded out Houston's offensive standouts at plus 15.8 and plus 6.6 percent WPA respectively.