Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 7-0 at Busch Stadium on May 20, 2026, handing the home side a complete loss after the DiamondIQ model had opened the evening giving St. Louis a 61 percent chance to win. Pittsburgh spread 15 hits across the game with no errors, while Cardinals pitching surrendered runs in the second, fourth, sixth, and eighth innings, the latter a four-run frame that effectively closed the door on any Cardinals comeback.

The decisive swings in win probability came in the fourth and sixth innings. Jhostynxon Garcia's single off Michael McGreevy in the top of the fourth added 9.8 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability and was his most consequential at-bat of the night, part of a game-leading WPA of plus-16.6 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-0.8. In the bottom of the sixth, Cardinals hitters did lasting damage to their own chances, as César Prieto's flyout off Yohan Ramírez cost St. Louis 10.4 percent win probability, and Masyn Winn's strikeout off the same pitcher subtracted another 9.8 percent. Even Nolan Gorman's walk in that frame, which added 8.2 percent for the Cardinals' side, could not offset the compounding outs around it. Endy Rodríguez and Konnor Griffin each contributed plus-0.9 RE24 with WPA figures of plus-7.2 and plus-5.7 respectively.

On the mound, Carmen Mlodzinski was the story for Pittsburgh, posting a commanding plus-31.2 percent WPA, the highest single-pitcher figure in the game by a wide margin. Evan Sisk and Yohan Ramírez added plus-6.3 and plus-6.0 respectively in relief, keeping the Cardinals' five hits entirely off the scoreboard. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win fell to zero percent by the final out, a complete reversal from where the evening began.