Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds quieted Citizens Bank Park on May 19, 2026, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 and swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 54 percent at first pitch all the way down to zero. The Reds posted all four of their runs in the fourth and seventh innings while limiting Philadelphia to three hits and taking advantage of a Phillies error, completing a thoroughly controlled road performance.

The game's most consequential single moment came in the bottom of the third, when Trea Turner connected for a home run off Chase Burns, a swing that shifted win probability 11.1 percent in Philadelphia's favor. That proved to be the Phillies' high-water mark. The Reds answered in the top of the fourth when Elly De La Cruz laced a triple off Jesús Luzardo, a play worth plus-9.8 percent in win probability, and Cincinnati converted that opportunity into a two-run inning to take the lead for good. Philadelphia's own baserunning and sequencing worked against them, as Ke'Bryan Hayes grounded into double plays in both the third and fifth innings, costing the Phillies 10.6 and 8.1 percentage points respectively. Cincinnati then padded its advantage in the seventh on a Matt McLain fielder's choice off Jonathan Bowlan, a play worth plus-9.4 percent.

Chase Burns was the dominant individual force on the night, finishing with plus-21.6 percent in pitcher WPA despite surrendering Turner's home run, holding Philadelphia largely in check across his outing. Among Cincinnati's hitters, De La Cruz led all batters with plus-13.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Tyler Stephenson contributed plus-12.3 percent WPA and led the lineup with a RE24 of plus-1.7. JJ Bleday added plus-11.9 percent WPA as the Reds' offense distributed its damage efficiently throughout the lineup. Pierce Johnson and Sam Moll closed out the bullpen work with plus-6.3 and plus-5.2 percent respectively, completing a clean 4-1 road victory.