Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-4 on May 19, 2026, at Yankee Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a New York victory moving from a 70% pre-game probability to a certainty by the final out. The game was scoreless through three innings before erupting in the fourth, when both clubs combined for six runs. Toronto struck first, with Yohendrick Piñango delivering a single off Will Warren that shifted win probability 10.3 points in the Blue Jays' favor as part of a three-run frame. New York matched that output immediately in the bottom half, with Ryan McMahon launching a home run off Dylan Cease that represented the single most impactful play of the night, swinging win probability 25.7 points toward the Yankees. Ben Rice then extended New York's advantage in the fifth with another home run off Cease, adding a further 21.1-point swing that effectively took command of the contest.

Toronto managed one run in the ninth but could not complete the comeback. Kazuma Okamoto's groundout against Camilo Doval in the top of the ninth carried a 15.2-point negative swing for the visitors, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s sacrifice fly moments later represented another 9.6-point drop, as the Blue Jays exhausted their final opportunities. McMahon finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-25.2 and an RE24 of plus-2.1, while Rice posted a WPA of plus-18.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.1. Andrés Giménez also contributed meaningfully at plus-13.3 WPA. On the mound, Brent Headrick led New York's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-11.3, with Tim Hill and Doval each adding positive contributions to close out the 5-4 win.