San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Seattle Mariners 7-4 at T-Mobile Park on May 16, 2026, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had assigned a 41 percent chance of avoiding before first pitch. The game turned decisively in the fourth inning, when Nick Castellanos connected on a home run off Logan Gilbert that swung win probability 20.3 percent in San Diego's favor, the single most impactful play of the night. The Padres extended their lead in the seventh when Rodolfo Duran added another home run against Gilbert, a blow worth 9.5 percent in win probability that effectively buried Seattle's chances. The Mariners made a brief push in the eighth, with Randy Arozarena drawing a single off Alek Jacob that moved Seattle's odds 8.6 percent in their direction, but Luke Raley's strikeout against Adrian Morejon in the same frame swung things back 7.6 percent toward San Diego and ended the threat before it could develop. J.P. Crawford's solo home run off Walker Buehler in the fifth, worth 7.4 percent, gave Seattle a fleeting moment of life that the offense could not build on.

Castellanos finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-18.1 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Josh Naylor contributed plus-13.8 percent WPA with a plus-0.5 RE24 to give the Padres a formidable middle-of-the-order presence throughout. Arozarena was Seattle's most impactful bat at plus-8.9 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, though his contributions came too late to alter the outcome. On the mound, Adrian Morejon led all pitchers with a plus-11.6 percent WPA, with Wandy Peralta adding plus-6.0 percent in support as San Diego's bullpen held the line. Walker Buehler posted a plus-4.3 percent WPA for the Padres despite surrendering Crawford's homer, a sign that he otherwise limited damage effectively. The DiamondIQ model closed with Seattle at zero percent win probability, a reflection of how thoroughly the Padres controlled the final frames.