Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays edged the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in ten innings at Comerica Park on May 16, 2026, overcoming a one-run deficit to claim the victory. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game favoring Detroit with a 53% home win probability, but that figure fell to 0% by the final out. Neither team scored through the first five innings before Matt Vierling broke the deadlock in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Braydon Fisher, a swing that shifted win probability 15.2 points in Detroit's favor and gave the Tigers what looked like a durable lead heading into the late innings.

Toronto answered in the seventh when Yohendrick Piñango connected for a home run off Kyle Finnegan, a 15.6-point win-probability swing that knotted the game at one and forced extras. The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where Daulton Varsho delivered a single off Tyler Holton that carried a 37.4-point win-probability impact, the largest single play of the game, to plate what proved to be the winning run. Ernie Clement's flyout earlier in that same half-inning also registered a notable 16.3-point swing as Toronto worked through the frame. Louis Varland then retired Dillon Dingler on a strikeout to end the Detroit threat in the bottom of the tenth, a sequence that added 19.0 points to Toronto's closing probability and sealed the outcome.

Varsho finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer with a cumulative WPA of plus-44.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Clement contributed plus-16.3 WPA on the night. On the pitching side, Casey Mize led all hurlers at plus-27.8 WPA, followed by Spencer Miles at plus-21.8 and Kenley Jansen at plus-13.5, with Toronto's bullpen collectively preserving the narrow margin through the regulation innings and into extras. The Blue Jays finished with five hits and one error against Detroit's seven hits and clean fielding, a slim margin that nonetheless proved sufficient given the execution in the tenth.