MLB Recap · May 15, 2026

New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

NYY5
Final
NYM2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY0030100015100
NYM000000101251

The Story

The New York Yankees defeated the New York Mets 5-2 at Citi Field on May 15, 2026, completing a wire-to-wire dominant performance that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected starkly — a pre-game home win probability of 33 percent collapsed to 0 percent by the final out. The Yankees recorded ten hits and committed no errors, while the Mets managed just five hits and were hurt by one error of their own. New York's pitching staff largely held the Mets in check from start to finish, with the home team's lone moments of resistance arriving too late to alter the outcome.

The decisive blow came in the top of the third inning, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. laced a double off Clay Holmes that shifted win probability by 16.9 percent in the Yankees' favor, the single largest swing of the game. Cody Bellinger followed with another double off Holmes, adding an 11.2 percent swing and extending what became a three-run third. The Yankees added a run in the fifth on a Spencer Jones single off Austin Warren, worth 6.6 percent in win probability, before tacking on an insurance run in the ninth. Juan Soto provided the Mets' most consequential moment with a solo home run in the bottom of the seventh off Cam Schlittler, a swing worth plus-7.4 percent, but it represented a consolation rather than a turning point.

Chisholm finished as the game's top performer by both metrics, posting a WPA of plus-19.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, making him the clearest individual driver of the Yankees' victory. Soto led all Mets batters with a WPA of plus-12.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.1, despite pitching around him proving largely effective. On the mound, Schlittler led Yankees pitchers with a WPA contribution of plus-10.7 percent, followed by Fernando Cruz at plus-8.0 percent, as the bullpen secured the final margin with relative comfort. Marcus Semien also contributed offensively at plus-9.8 percent WPA, rounding out a balanced Yankees effort in a game that was effectively decided before the home side could mount any meaningful response.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalNYM win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 33% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Top 3rd · off Clay Holmes
+16.9%
Cody Bellinger Double
Top 3rd · off Clay Holmes
+11.2%
Juan Soto Home Run
Bot 7th · off Cam Schlittler
+7.4%
Anthony Volpe Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Clay Holmes
-7.2%
Spencer Jones Single
Top 5th · off Austin Warren
+6.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Jazz Chisholm Jr.+19.9%+2.3 RE24
Juan Soto+12.5%+1.1 RE24
Marcus Semien+9.8%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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