Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves walked off the Boston Red Sox 3-2 in ten innings on May 15, 2026, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Atlanta winning opening at 79 percent before finishing at a certainty. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the tenth when Mike Yastrzemski doubled off Tyler Samaniego, a swing that shifted win probability by 35.9 percent and ended the game. It was a fitting conclusion to a tightly contested extra-inning affair in which neither team managed to score after Boston briefly tied or drew within reach in the middle innings. Atlanta had plated single runs in the first and fourth innings, and the Red Sox answered with Marcelo Mayer's solo home run off Tyler Kinley in the seventh, a hit worth plus 15.8 percent in win probability, followed by Mickey Gasper's single off Dylan Lee in the sixth, which had added 10.6 percent. Boston ultimately knotted the run total heading into extras, though the game's cumulative probability had been trending toward the Braves throughout.

On the pitching side, Atlanta's bullpen was central to preserving the win. Raisel Iglesias generated the game's single biggest negative swing for Boston when he struck out Andruw Monasterio in the top of the ninth, a moment worth minus 12.0 percent for the Red Sox. Aroldis Chapman followed by retiring Kyle Farmer on a strikeout in the bottom of the ninth, a play that added 14.0 percent to Atlanta's win probability by protecting a tie and forcing extras on Boston's terms. Robert Suarez led all pitchers with plus 16.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Jovani Morán at plus 15.5 percent and Iglesias at plus 13.5 percent, with the trio collectively shutting down Boston's offense in the critical late frames. Yastrzemski finished as the game's top positional contributor at plus 33.2 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, with Gasper and Mayer rounding out Boston's most impactful offensive performers in a loss that came down to one swing in the tenth.