San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the Seattle Mariners 2-0 at T-Mobile Park on May 15, 2026, holding a team the DiamondIQ model had pegged at a 43 percent pre-game win probability scoreless across nine innings. San Diego tallied nine hits and committed no errors, while Seattle managed seven hits but was undone by an error and an inability to convert when it mattered most. The Padres scored the game's only runs in the fourth and seventh innings, keeping the Mariners at arm's length throughout.

The decisive moments came in a clutch-packed eighth inning. Connor Joe's strikeout against Mason Miller swung win probability by 16.4 percent against Seattle, the single largest play of the game, and Josh Naylor's flyout off Jason Adam compounded the damage with another 11.0 percent swing in San Diego's favor, effectively sealing the outcome. The inning that set the tone offensively was the fourth, when Miguel Andujar doubled off Emerson Hancock for a 10.3 percent win-probability gain, the biggest positive swing for the Padres at the plate. A Brendan Donovan strikeout in the ninth, which added 11.6 percent to the DiamondIQ model's estimate in San Diego's favor as a near-certain outcome materialized, closed out the scoring summary.

On the mound, Randy Vasquez led all players by WPA at plus-27.2 percent, anchoring the shutout effort, while Emerson Hancock contributed plus-19.2 percent despite surrendering the Andujar double, and Adrian Morejon added plus-8.8 percent in relief. Donovan led position players at plus-11.5 percent WPA, Andujar followed at plus-10.2 percent, and Ramon Laureano added plus-6.6 percent as the model leaned decisively toward the Padres as the game progressed, finishing with Seattle's win probability at zero.