Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Baltimore Orioles 3-2 at Nationals Park on May 15, 2026, holding on after a late Baltimore rally fell short. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Washington as a 58% pre-game favorite and closed at 100% following a tense ninth inning in which the Orioles mounted a two-run push that ultimately came up one run short.

The decisive moment of the game came in the bottom of the sixth inning, when Daylen Lile hit a home run off Shane Baz, a swing that added 18.4% to Washington's win probability and gave the Nationals what proved to be an insurmountable two-run cushion. Lile finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 28.8% and an RE24 of plus 2.7, anchoring Washington's modest but sufficient six-hit output. The Nationals scored one run in the fourth inning and two more in the sixth, then watched their bullpen navigate a dangerous ninth. Adley Rutschman struck out against Richard Lovelady, a swing of minus 13.5% in Baltimore's win probability, before Taylor Ward drew a walk to add 10.5% back. Leody Taveras then walked off Gus Varland to load the bases and keep the rally alive at plus 9.5%, but Coby Mayo struck out to end the threat, costing Baltimore 8.5% in win probability and sealing the result.

On the mound, Zack Littell was Washington's most valuable arm, contributing plus 18.1% WPA, while Gus Varland added plus 6.9% and Andrew Alvarez contributed plus 6.7% in support of the Nationals' 3-2 final. Baltimore went scoreless through eight innings before scoring twice in the ninth, finishing with six hits and no errors, matching Washington's line across both categories but unable to overcome the deficit Lile's home run had established four innings earlier.