San Francisco Giants at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Athletics defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 on May 15, 2026, at Sutter Health Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 66% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game remained relatively close through four innings before a pivotal fifth defined the outcome. Harrison Bader's solo home run off Aaron Civale in the top of the fifth gave San Francisco a brief boost, adding 12.7% to the Giants' win probability, but Oakland answered emphatically in the bottom half when Nick Kurtz crushed a home run off Tyler Mahle that swung the win probability 26.0% in the Athletics' favor — the single most consequential play of the night. Luis Arraez had set the tone earlier, connecting for a solo shot off Civale in the top of the fourth worth 11.3% in win probability, though that lead proved short-lived once Oakland's bats came alive.

Arraez and Kurtz were the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, each finishing with a WPA of roughly plus-23 to plus-24 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.0. Arraez added a double off José Suarez in the seventh that gained another 9.8% for San Francisco, though Matt Chapman's strikeout in the same inning cost the Giants 8.7% and effectively stalled the rally. Both teams finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, but Oakland's ability to cluster damage in the fifth proved decisive. On the mound, Suarez, Joel Kuhnel, and Luis Medina each contributed roughly 4.5 to 5.0% in win probability for the Athletics' bullpen, helping protect the three-run cushion through the final frames.