Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins routed the Miami Marlins 9-1 at Target Field on May 14, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a modest 54 percent home-win probability into a foregone conclusion by the end of the second inning. Minnesota sent a large number of batters to the plate in the bottom of the second, scoring five runs in a burst that effectively decided the contest. Josh Bell's double off Braxton Garrett was the single most impactful swing of the game, adding 8.5 percent to Minnesota's win probability, with Austin Martin's double off the same pitcher adding another 7.8 percent and a James Outman walk contributing 6.8 percent. Royce Lewis drew a walk as well, and even a Luke Keaschall strikeout registered as a positive development for the Twins, adding 8.4 percent win probability by retiring an out while Minnesota still held a commanding lead. Minnesota tacked on a run in the third and three more in the eighth, with Miami's lone run coming in the top of that frame, leaving the final at 9-1.

Outman led all batters by WPA at plus-9.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.4, followed by Martin at plus-8.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, and Bell at plus-7.1 percent. On the mound, Zebby Matthews was the standout performer, generating plus-9.7 percent win probability added as he kept Miami's offense largely in check across his time on the field. Anthony Bender and Lake Bachar each made appearances in relief without meaningful run impact. The Marlins managed only five hits on the night and committed one error, while the Twins posted nine hits with a clean defensive performance, completing a lopsided victory that the DiamondIQ model ultimately estimated as a near-certain outcome well before the final out.